MEPX
Chapter 10 of 10All chapters

Chapter 10 of 10

Reading claims about climate

Signal against noise.

Common confusions

A cold snap is not a counterargument, a single hot year is not proof, and models are tested against past data rather than assumed. Trends need decades to be meaningful.

  • Check whether a chart shows a cherry-picked start year.
  • Local records vary far more than the global average does.

Uncertainty honestly

Uncertainty is mostly about how much and how fast, not whether. Ranges in projections come from emission choices as well as physics, and the first of those is a decision rather than a forecast.