Jobs and the economy

Where forecasting fails.

Task, not job

Roles are bundles of tasks, and automation lands unevenly across them. Jobs change composition long before they disappear, and new ones appear that were not forecast.

Adoption is limited by trust, regulation and workflow, not only by capability.
Past automation predictions have a poor accuracy record in both directions.

What is defensible

Text-heavy routine work is changing fastest. Work needing physical presence, accountability, or negotiation of ambiguity is changing more slowly.