MEPX
Chapter 7 of 10All chapters
  1. 1What it actually is
  2. 2Reading a claim
  3. 3Weighing evidence
  4. 4Judging sources
  5. 5Your own thumb on the scale
  6. 6Claims with numbers
  7. 7Cause and effect
  8. 8Persuasion techniques
  9. 9Information online
  10. 10Building the habit

Chapter 7 of 10

Cause and effect

The most common overreach.

Alternatives to consider

Before accepting that A caused B, consider chance, reverse causation, a third factor driving both, and selection deciding who was in the data at all.

  • Only randomisation reliably rules out the third factor.
  • Before and after is not evidence: things change for many reasons.

Regression to the mean

Extreme results are usually followed by less extreme ones with no intervention at all. Much of the apparent effect of treating the worst cases is exactly this.