Chapter 6 of 10All chapters
Chapter 6 of 10
Claims with numbers
Where the trick usually hides.
Questions to ask
Compared with what? Out of how many? Measured how? A percentage without a base, or a change without a starting point, is not information.
- Relative risk sounds dramatic; absolute risk is what affects you.
- A doubling from one in a million to two is still nothing.
Base rates
How common something is beforehand decides how to read a test or a signal. Ignoring it is why a highly accurate test for a rare condition mostly produces false positives.