MEPX
Chapter 1 of 10All chapters
  1. 1What it actually is
  2. 2Reading a claim
  3. 3Weighing evidence
  4. 4Judging sources
  5. 5Your own thumb on the scale
  6. 6Claims with numbers
  7. 7Cause and effect
  8. 8Persuasion techniques
  9. 9Information online
  10. 10Building the habit

Chapter 1 of 10

What it actually is

Proportioning belief to evidence.

Not contrarianism

Doubting everything is as unthinking as accepting everything, and it is often used as cover for accepting whatever suits you. The goal is calibration, not suspicion.

  • Most claims deserve provisional acceptance, held loosely.
  • The question is how much weight a claim has earned, not whether it is certain.

On yourself first

The reasoning easiest to fool is your own, because you never see the arguments you did not think of. Applying the tools inwards is the part that actually changes decisions.