Chapter 10 of 10All chapters
Chapter 10 of 10
An honest picture
Base rates and survivorship.
The odds
Most new businesses close within a decade, and most funded startups do not return capital. The visible stories are the survivors, which distorts every intuition about the odds.
- Studying successes alone tells you what successes look like, not what causes success.
- Second-time founders do better, which suggests the learning is real.
What it costs
Income, stability and time, often for years. Going in with that stated clearly, and with a limit on what you will risk, is not pessimism; it is the same planning you would apply to anything else.