MEPX
Chapter 3 of 10All chapters

Chapter 3 of 10

When you cannot experiment

Observational evidence.

The limitation

Astronomy, epidemiology and economics often cannot assign treatments. They compare groups that differ for their own reasons, which is where confounders live.

  • Statistical adjustment helps and never fully substitutes for randomisation.
  • Natural experiments exploit an accident that assigned people almost randomly.

Strength of evidence

Consistency across studies, a dose response relationship, a plausible mechanism and correct time order all raise confidence when an experiment is impossible.