Chapter 5 of 10All chapters
Chapter 5 of 10
Reading a result
Significance, size and uncertainty.
What p-values say
A small p-value means the data would be surprising if nothing were going on. It is not the probability the hypothesis is true, and it says nothing about size.
- With a large enough sample, trivial differences become significant.
- Confidence intervals communicate far more than a threshold does.
Effect size
Ask how big the effect is in units you care about, not just whether it passed a test. A statistically significant improvement of one percent may be worth nothing.