MEPX
Chapter 3 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Deciding what matters
  2. 2Getting it out of your head
  3. 3Estimating time
  4. 4Attention and interruption
  5. 5Structuring the day
  6. 6Procrastination
  7. 7Meetings
  8. 8Saying no
  9. 9Systems and tools
  10. 10Sustainable pace

Chapter 3 of 10

Estimating time

You will be wrong low.

The planning fallacy

People underestimate their own tasks even when they know similar tasks ran late. The fix is comparison to actual past durations rather than imagining a smooth run.

  • Track how long a few recurring tasks really take.
  • Add explicit buffer instead of secret optimism.

Breaking work down

Estimates on pieces you understand are far better than one estimate on something vague. If a task cannot be broken down, the first task is understanding it.