MEPX
Chapter 10 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Why estimate
  2. 2Anchors worth knowing
  3. 3Fermi estimates
  4. 4Rounding well
  5. 5Sanity checks
  6. 6Estimating percentages
  7. 7Estimating time
  8. 8Making big numbers real
  9. 9Where estimates go wrong
  10. 10Getting better

Chapter 10 of 10

Getting better

Guess, then check.

The habit

Guess before looking anything up: the bill, the distance, the file size, the crowd. Then check. The feedback loop builds calibration faster than any technique.

  • Write the guess down first so you cannot revise it afterwards.
  • Being wrong in a memorable way is what teaches the anchor.

Calibration

Well calibrated people are right about 90 percent of the time when they say they are 90 percent sure. Most people are far more confident than that, and practice is what narrows the gap.