Chapter 7 of 10All chapters
Chapter 7 of 10
Estimating time
The forecast everyone gets wrong.
The planning fallacy
People consistently underestimate how long tasks take, even having been late on the same task before. The fix is to use records of similar past work rather than imagination.
- Break work into pieces small enough to have done something like before.
- Add contingency for the unknown rather than pretending it is absent.
Ranges, not points
Give a best case, likely case and worst case. A single number is a promise; a range is an honest estimate and invites the right conversation.