MEPX
Chapter 9 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Why we have them
  2. 2Biases about belief
  3. 3Biases about numbers
  4. 4Biases about ourselves
  5. 5Biases in decisions
  6. 6Biases in groups
  7. 7Looking backwards
  8. 8Biases in what you see
  9. 9What actually helps
  10. 10Being careful with the concept

Chapter 9 of 10

What actually helps

Process beats awareness.

Structure the decision

Independent written estimates before discussion. Explicit criteria set before options are seen. A checklist for recurring decisions. Each removes the moment where bias operates.

  • A pre-mortem asks the team to imagine it failed and say why.
  • Reference class forecasting compares against similar past cases rather than the plan.

Records

Write the decision, the reasoning and the expected outcome. Reviewing them later is the only way to find out whether your judgement is improving.