MEPX
Chapter 8 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Why we have them
  2. 2Biases about belief
  3. 3Biases about numbers
  4. 4Biases about ourselves
  5. 5Biases in decisions
  6. 6Biases in groups
  7. 7Looking backwards
  8. 8Biases in what you see
  9. 9What actually helps
  10. 10Being careful with the concept

Chapter 8 of 10

Biases in what you see

Survivorship and selection.

The missing data

Conclusions drawn only from what survived leave out everything that did not. Studying successful founders tells you what successes have in common, including with the failures.

  • Ask what would be missing from this data by construction.
  • Aircraft returning with holes showed where planes could be hit and survive.

Selection effects

Who ends up in a dataset is rarely random. Online reviews come from the delighted and the furious, and almost nobody in between.