MEPX
Chapter 4 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Why we have them
  2. 2Biases about belief
  3. 3Biases about numbers
  4. 4Biases about ourselves
  5. 5Biases in decisions
  6. 6Biases in groups
  7. 7Looking backwards
  8. 8Biases in what you see
  9. 9What actually helps
  10. 10Being careful with the concept

Chapter 4 of 10

Biases about ourselves

Confidence and attribution.

Overconfidence

Most people are right far less often than their confidence suggests, and the gap is widest where skill is lowest. Calibration is a trainable skill and confidence is not a substitute.

  • The planning fallacy is overconfidence about time, and it survives experience.
  • Feedback with a scoreboard is what improves calibration.

Attribution

We explain our own failures by circumstances and other people's by character. Reversing that habit for one case is usually enough to see how strong it is.