MEPX
Chapter 3 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Why we have them
  2. 2Biases about belief
  3. 3Biases about numbers
  4. 4Biases about ourselves
  5. 5Biases in decisions
  6. 6Biases in groups
  7. 7Looking backwards
  8. 8Biases in what you see
  9. 9What actually helps
  10. 10Being careful with the concept

Chapter 3 of 10

Biases about numbers

Anchors, availability and framing.

Anchoring

The first number mentioned pulls every later estimate towards it, even when it is arbitrary. Negotiators, retailers and estimators all rely on this.

  • Make your own estimate before hearing anyone else's.
  • In negotiation, the anchor is often worth more than the argument.

Availability

We judge how likely something is by how easily an example comes to mind. Vivid, recent and heavily reported events feel far more common than they are.