Looking backwards

Hindsight and outcome bias.

It was obvious all along

Once you know the result, the path to it seems inevitable and the warning signs seem clear. That makes learning from history much harder than it looks.

Written predictions are the only defence: memory rewrites itself.
Post-incident reviews should ask what was knowable at the time.

Outcome bias

We judge decisions by how they turned out rather than by whether they were sensible with what was known. Good decisions sometimes lose and bad ones sometimes win.