MEPX
Chapter 5 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Process over outcome
  2. 2Matching effort to stakes
  3. 3Framing the decision
  4. 4Working with uncertainty
  5. 5Where judgement bends
  6. 6Deciding in groups
  7. 7When to gather more
  8. 8Committing and changing course
  9. 9Personal decisions
  10. 10Reviewing decisions

Chapter 5 of 10

Where judgement bends

The relevant biases.

The usual suspects

Sunk cost keeps you in bad plans. Anchoring pulls estimates. Confirmation bias filters evidence. Loss aversion distorts risk. Each has a specific counter.

  • Sunk cost: ask what you would choose starting from today.
  • Anchoring: make your own estimate before hearing anyone else's.

Process beats awareness

Knowing about a bias barely reduces it. Structured steps, written criteria and independent estimates do the work that willpower cannot.