Personal decisions

Where the models fit badly.

Values, not optimisation

Career, relationships and where to live turn on what you want rather than on expected value. A spreadsheet can inform them and cannot decide them.

Imagine each option a year later and notice the feeling, then check it against the reasoning.
Ask what a friend in this position should do; distance improves judgement.

People more often regret inaction than action over the long term. That asymmetry is worth weighing when a reversible opportunity is in front of you.