MEPX
Chapter 1 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Process over outcome
  2. 2Matching effort to stakes
  3. 3Framing the decision
  4. 4Working with uncertainty
  5. 5Where judgement bends
  6. 6Deciding in groups
  7. 7When to gather more
  8. 8Committing and changing course
  9. 9Personal decisions
  10. 10Reviewing decisions

Chapter 1 of 10

Process over outcome

Judging a decision fairly.

Separating the two

A good decision uses the information available and a sound process. It can still turn out badly, because outcomes involve luck. Judging by results alone is outcome bias.

  • Poker players call it resulting: blaming the choice for the card.
  • A run of good outcomes can hide a terrible process for years.

What to record

The options, the reasoning, the expectation and the confidence. Reviewing that record later is the only honest way to find out whether your judgement is improving.