MEPX
Chapter 10 of 10All chapters
  1. 1Process over outcome
  2. 2Matching effort to stakes
  3. 3Framing the decision
  4. 4Working with uncertainty
  5. 5Where judgement bends
  6. 6Deciding in groups
  7. 7When to gather more
  8. 8Committing and changing course
  9. 9Personal decisions
  10. 10Reviewing decisions

Chapter 10 of 10

Reviewing decisions

Learning from a small sample.

Hindsight

Once the outcome is known, the path to it looks inevitable and the warning signs look obvious. Only a written record from before shows what was actually knowable.

  • Ask what was foreseeable rather than what turned out true.
  • Review both good and bad outcomes; luck runs in both directions.

Building a track record

Predictions with confidence levels, reviewed periodically, are how calibration improves. Almost nobody does this, which is why most people's judgement plateaus early.